Processes Contributing to North American Cold Air Outbreaks Based on Air Parcel Trajectory Analysis
Published in Journal of Climate, 2023
Recommended citation: Hartig, K., Tziperman, E., & Loughner, C. P. (2023). Processes Contributing to North American Cold Air Outbreaks Based on Air Parcel Trajectory Analysis. Journal of Climate, 36(3), 931–943. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0204.1
Despite the observed warming trend of about 1°C globally and 2-3°C in the wintertime Arctic, it is unclear whether wintertime cold air outbreaks over North America have warmed in line with this trend. In this paper, we use the CESM climate model to show that merely originating in the Arctic is not always enough to guarantee that an air mass develops into a cold air outbreak. Instead, Arctic air must receive additional cooling from the surface as it travels over the continent, which may be delaying the decline in cold air outbreaks until Arctic sea ice and North American snow cover retreat further.