Evidence for upwards but not downwards influence between the troposphere and the wintertime stratosphere
Submitted, Journal of Climate 2024
A vortex forms in the wintertime polar stratosphere every year. While there have been many attempts over the years to identify the upward influence that surface weather has on this vortex and a possible downward influence of vortex disruptions on surface conditions, results very dramatically across studies. In this work, we attempt to pick out both the time scales and the patterns of both the upward and downward teleconnection between the troposphere and the wintertime stratosphere using time-lagged Maximum Covariance Analysis. While we find good evidence of two time scales for an upward influence that propagates from the surface to the 10 hPa level, we failed to detect evidence of a downward influence on surface temperature.